My 2016 Academy Award Predictions
Posted by Leah on
2/24/2016 1:33:05 PM
Prefer to listen rather than read? Listen Here!
Are you as surprised as I am that another year has passed already? It doesn’t seem that long ago that I was telling you about last year’s Oscar controversies and winners, and yet here we are. In a few days, on Sunday February 28, the 88th annual Academy Awards will air on ABC, and yet there’s been a slew of media attention and personal outrage since the nominees were named on January 14.
Most of the controversy this year actually began with last year’s nominees. People are upset, again, by the seeming lack of diversity in the nominees, and the total lack of colored nominees. If you follow the news, or Twitter, you know that the hashtag “OscarsSoWhite” has been trending for a little over a month now. I’ve been thinking long and hard about how to cover this issue without offending people, with the knowledge that I can’t please everyone. On the one hand, I agree. There does need to be more diversity in a lot of aspects of life, not just award shows. On the other hand, the Academy is made up of some 6000 members, all from a range of backgrounds, ethnicities and careers in Hollywood. I’m sure that some of the Academy’s voting membership is racist, but I’m also sure that the majority are not, just as in the rest of the population. It is my firm belief, after watching all of the news stories and reading a TON of articles on the subject, that there shouldn’t really be a controversy. Should things be more diverse? Yes. Should it be at the cost of some really great films just to please the public? Of course not. The 6000 plus members of the Academy carefully considered all of the hundred plus eligible films that came out last year when they cast their ballots. The nominees are a reflection of what they thought were the best of the best of 2015. It just happened that what they think are the best of the best films don’t have very diverse casts. But, when you consider that 4 of the 8 nominees for Best Picture are based on true stories, and that it’s the filmmaker’s goal to tell the stories as honestly as possible (in most cases), we should blame history, not the Academy, for the lack of diversity in these films. (If you’d like to see a great video that breaks down how exactly the voting process works, head to thewrap.com).
And now on to what this is supposed to be about, the nominees and my predictions. I’ll start with Best Animated Feature, since animation is one of my favorite art forms. The nominees are Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie and When Marnie Was There. Of these five the only two I’ve seen are Inside Out and Shaun the Sheep Movie. Anomalisa is one that I really wanted to see at the 2015 NHFF, but missed my chance. Since then it hasn’t played anywhere near me, and thus, I haven’t yet seen it. I know I should go based on what I have indeed seen, but in this case my pick is Anomalisa. I’ve heard such great things about the film and how it was made that I’d actually be a little shocked if it doesn’t win.
The nominees for Best Supporting Actress are Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara for Carol, Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl and Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs. Of these films I’ve only seen Spotlight (which I’ll review soon) and while McAdams’s performance was great, I’m not sure she should win here. Otherwise, because I haven’t seen the rest of them, I don’t really have a solid pick.
For Best Supporting Actor the nominees are Christian Bale for The Big Short, Tom Hardy for The Revenant, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies and Sylvester Stallone for Creed. Of these I’ve seen Spotlight and The Revenant. I think this one could go a few ways. I read a few articles in which anonymous Academy members break down what and who they voted for and why, and in those articles they make a strong case for Christian Bale and The Big Short. They’ve also made the case for Stallone for Creed, but mostly because Stallone is getting on in years and he’s never won an Oscar. Having not yet seen either film, I can’t say if I agree with them or not, but a win for Bale here wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t think Tom Hardy should win for The Revenant. I just didn’t feel like this was his strongest performance,or that it was as strong as Ruffalo’s in Spotlight. My pick is Mark Ruffalo.
The Best Actress nominees are Cate Blanchett for Carol, Brie Larson for Room, Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years and Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn. I haven’t seen a single one of these films, unfortunately, but based on my diligent reading, it appears to be a toss-up between Brie Larson and Charlotte Rampling.
The nominees for Best Actor include Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Matt Damon for The Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs and Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl. Of these I’ve seen The Martian, Trumbo and The Revenant. In my own opinion, Fassbender is out because he thinks too highly of himself (which I’ll get into at a later date). The Martian is also out. I thought it was a good movie, but worthy of Hollywood’s highest honor? Nope. Eddie Redmayne is also probably out because, according to OscarWorld.net, “only five actors have managed the feat of winning back-to-back Oscars, in other words, winning Oscars two years in a row. They include Tom Hanks, Spencer Tracy, Luise Rainer, Katharine Hepburn, and Jason Robards.” That leaves it a race between Brian Cranston and Leonardo DiCaprio. My pick is Cranston, but do I honestly think he’ll win? Probably not. I think Cranston’s performance in Trumbo was heartbreaking, touching and very well done. He absolutely nailed it in his portrayal of Dalton Trumbo,the man and the controversy surrounding him.
But then there’s Leo. DiCaprio has now been nominated 4 times and has yet to win. (I wrote a full article on the subject, which you can find here). The Academy has a long history of awarding actors that had to go through some sort of trauma or transformation to achieve their roles. For example, in 2014 Matthew McConaughey won Best Actor after losing 47 or so pounds for his role in Dallas Buyer’s Club. That same year Jared Leto won Best Supporting Actor after losing 40 pounds for the same film. In 2000 Hillary Swank won Best Actress after living as a boy for months for the film Boys Don’t Cry. Charlize Theron won Best Actress in 2004 for Monster after shaving her eyebrows and gaining 30 plus pounds.
I don’t think that DiCaprio’s performance in The Revenant is worthy of the Golden Statue, especially not when compared to some of his other roles. But he will probably win, because he ate raw buffalo meat, was almost hypothermic and slept naked in an animal carcass for the role.
And lastly, the nominees for Best Picture include The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight. I’ve seen Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant and Spotlight. If you remember my article 5 Movies of 2015 I Hope to Never Have to See Again, then you’ll remember my feelings on Mad Max: Fury Road. If not, I’ll fill you in: I think this movie is pure garbage and certainly doesn’t deserve any of the 10 nominations it’s received, never mind an actual win for Best Picture! The Martian was an entertaining enough film, but I don’t think it’s worthy of all of this praise either, (although, that may be because what I remember most about the film is Matt Damon’s loud chewing). The Revenant will probably win, but I don’t think its deserving either. After the now infamous bear attack scene, (which comes fairly early on) this film drags, and drags and drags. It made the 2 hour 36 minute run time seem far longer than it was, and I was very happy when the anticlimactic ending came.
The film I want to win most is Spotlight. Spotlight tells the 2001 story of the reporters of the Spotlight unit at the Boston Globe as they worked to uncover the long history of abuse by Catholic priests in Boston. I think this film was the best done of the lot (I’ll review it fully at a later date), and dealt with this very sensitive and difficult subject matter in the best way possible. I really hope it pulls an upset over The Revenant!
And there you have it, my nominees for the 88th annual Academy Awards. Be sure to tune in to ABC Sunday February 28th to find out who wins, and keep an eye here for my complete wrap up afterwards. You can find the complete list of nominees here.